
(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?
23
1kṀ24152030
2026
expected
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question resolves to the year on which the first compelling (to me) evidence of either of the following appears:
(1) a virus having a neural network as a component is deliberately designed by a malicious actor, and spreads across user hardware.
(2) an AI unboxes and spreads to new hardware in an effort to gain access to more computing resources, or to not be turned off.
"User intent" here refers to the (new) hardware's user, not the AI's (original) user. A controlled demonstration of (1) will not count for this questions resolution, since it would not be "against user intent".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
47% chance
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
75% chance
When will humans intentionally destroy an AI data center first?
11/2/30
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
16% chance
By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
36% chance
Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?
29% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.
49% chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2026?
22% chance
State Of The Art AI systems will be easily jailbroken to do illegal or dangerous outputs in Jan 2026
91% chance