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This was cool

Jan 5th value in the field analogous to the example ends in “…A204A7” (https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/chain/2/pulse/129005) – am I thinking right that the condition was met yesterday and it should resolve “No”?

I find the data schema really confusing, there are outputValue, localRandomValue, and a few identical copies of value – without a big blinking neon arrow or some exclamation marked lines in documentation, I have no idea which one to look at.

@yaboi69 Correct, it resolves NO. I'll give a few more minutes before resolving. Thanks!

@Jacknaut Thanks. It’s an interesting idea, the benefit-to-transaction costs ratio does seem to stymie activity though.

@yaboi69 Not only that, but as @MartinRandall pointed out to me in discord: "The correct probability should smoothly vary from 46% to 54%, on a two day cycle, I think?", and imo probably half of that, given people attempting to profit off of daytraders.

@Jacknaut I think its actually 49 to 51% as someone else said in the discord.

@NeonNuke Oh didn't see that comment till you mentioned it now. Maybe so, I'm too dumb to understand it.

Dec 29th's values released. Market will not resolve today.

I was struggling with deciding whether to resolve the market based the current day's value (current description rules) or the next day's value. Let me know your thoughts in case I make another similar thoughts.

The benefit of using the current day's value is that there is maybe less confusion - the value that determines whether the market resolves is displayed next to the day it resolves when you view the beacon link. And it's effectively the same as using the next day's value.

However, I thought also that it would be nice if it used the next day's value for traders viewing their current system clock and seeing "Oh it's Dec 28th, it might resolve YES today" and then waiting till 7:01pm EST for the Dec 29th number to show if the market will resolve. Using the current day's value means that for a majority of timezones, the current day will already be decided, and you're essentially betting on the next day compared to your system clock.

Maybe this is less confusing or less important than I'm making it out to be, and there's a less verbose way of making the description.

@Jacknaut Updated description to be more succinct. Nothing about the resolution criteria was changed.

@Jacknaut I also wonder if 4% is too low to be as volatile as I hoped.