Will Dune 2 world wide box office be higher than Dune 1?
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resolved Mar 19
Resolved
YES

Dune: Part Two is an upcoming American epic science fiction film directed by Denis Villeneuve, who co-wrote the screenplay with Jon Spaihts. The sequel to Dune (2021), it is the second of a two-part adaptation of the 1965 novel Dune by Frank Herbert, and follows Paul Atreides as he unites with the Fremen people of the desert planet Arrakis to win the war against House Harkonnen. Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Zendaya, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem reprise their roles from the first film, with Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, and Léa Seydoux joining the ensemble cast.

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predicted YES

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@JackTang Was the early close date intentional? Should we extend trading until we know the answer?

bought Ṁ90 of YES

Arbitrage opportunity:

Dune 1 made about 402 million, btw

https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-dune-part-two-make-over-500-mi

@JackTang are you going to update the resolution date for this question?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

The recent writer's strikes also don't bode well

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I think not, dune was well crafted and it got good reviews, but I don't think the mass is going to come back for another. It was a well made, smart, artistic movie. No one want to be the one saying they got bored watching this 2.5 hours movie held as a masterpiece, so no one is going to talk shit about it, but I suspect based on my own anecdotal observation that it won't break the 400 million mark like the first one.

We shall see

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@THEWINNER It has the advantage of not being released in a COVID year, though.

predicted NO
predicted YES

The cost of a movie ticket has also increased slightly over the past couple years.

@covaryance not to mention that the screenings of barbenheimer, mission impossible, and sound of freedom are definitely going to get more people to go to the theaters from now on

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