Will Greens, ACT or NZ First poll at 15.00% or more for the 2026 NZ Election?

Question

resolves yes if the party polls at 15.00% or more 3 or more polls. (after market creation)

all 3 appearances cant be the same company though. Must be at least 2 different polling companies reporting it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election#Table_of_polls

Polls accepted:

RNZ-Reid Research

taxpayer union-curia

roy morgan

the post/freshwater strategy

1news-verian

Talbot Mills

More polls may be accepted, if they are added to wikipedia and arent a result of vandalism.

Win Prizes by trading on this market: https://manifold.markets/post/prize-pool-of-5500-mana-for-the-202

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, NZ First polls at 15.00% or more in 3 or more polls?, followed by Greens poll at 15.00% or more in 3 or more polls? and ACT polls at 15.00% or more in 3 or more polls? are most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Aug 12, 2026).

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