If SpaceX confirms an IPO before 23.59 EST on the listed date, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, BBC, ABC, Reuters, CNBC, and Financial Times.

An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after the date