Which candidate wins, and will they win with a margin larger or smaller than the Libertarian Candidates Vote Count?
For example:
James Talarico 5,000,000 votes
Ken Paxton 4,750,000 votes
Libertarian Ted Brown 200,000 votes
It would resolve ‘James Talarico wins by more than the Libertarians Vote Count’ as his margin of 250,000 (5m minus 4.75m) is more than the 200,000 votes.
The Libertarian candidate is Ted Brown
More information on the race from Wikipedia:
2026 United States Senate election in Texas - Wikipedia
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the option that correctly describes the outcome of the November 3, 2026, United States Senate election in Texas, comparing the margin of victory between the major party candidates to the total votes received by the Libertarian candidate.
Definitions:
Winning Margin: The absolute difference in certified votes between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
Libertarian Vote Count: The total certified vote count received by the Libertarian candidate, Ted Brown.
Source of Truth: This market will resolve using the official, certified election results published by the Texas Secretary of State. If certification is delayed or legally challenged, resolution will wait until certified totals are officially released by the state.
If the result is obvious, can resolve early based on Associated Press Projections.
Rules for small chance scenarios:
The Market will resolve n/a if the Liberterian candidate does not appear on the ballot.
If Talarico or Paxton wins by exactly the same amount as the Libertarians candidate vote count, it will resolve 50% each to the candidates more than/less than answers.
If the election is tied, resolves to the candidate that is ultimately sworn in, with their ‘margin smaller than L..’ answer resolving yes.
If a candidate is replaced on the ballot, resolves according to party, with Talarico being Democrat and Paxton being Republican.
1,000