MANIFOLD
Texas Senate Primary margin of victory. Talarico v Crockett
80
Ṁ1kṀ33k
resolved Mar 9
100%99.1%
Talarico 5.00-9.9999%
0.2%
Talarico 0-4.99999%
0.1%
Talarico 10-19.9999%
0.1%
Crockett 0-4.99999%
0.2%
Crockett 5-9.99999%
0.1%
Crockett 10%+
0.1%
Talarico 20%+

Resolves to correct answer for first round of voting. If runoff is required, it doesn’t count.

Resolves according to official margin or media reporting if not close.

Resolves n/a if Talarico or Crockett don’t win.

  • Update 2026-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will remain open as voting results are released and until a winner is announced, allowing for live trading during the vote counting process.

Market context
2024 US Election
2026 US Election
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bought Ṁ10 YES
View original context

@traders trade on the margin for one the next big dem primaries!

@traders

The texas primary is today!

This market will remain open as voting results are released and until a winner is announced

Please manage limit orders accordingly

Thank you

@Jack1 did you mean to close this early?

@snazzlePop no, I've reopened it

bought Ṁ10 YES

@traders check out the James Talarico win by…? Market! I’ll send 25 mana to the next 10 new traders.

@Jack1 Done!

@Jack1 "Resolves n/a if Talarico or Crockett don’t win." By "win" here, you mean "finish in first place in the first round of voting", correct?

@DanielTilkin yes, this would only resolve n/a if Ahmad R. Hassan had most votes in first round.

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 8% order

Only a few days away now!

opened a Ṁ3,000 NO at 40% order

@Jack1 limit order on NO at Talarico 0-5 if you want it

reposted

Early voting has started

bought Ṁ100 NO

now would be a good time to bet on conditional markets haha

https://manifold.markets/bens/if-jasmine-crockett-wins-the-texas?r=YmVucw

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