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1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ532 | |
| 2 | Ṁ296 | |
| 3 | Ṁ234 | |
| 4 | Ṁ223 | |
| 5 | Ṁ184 |
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@Jack1 This closed a day early. It needs to have stayed open until the end of trading on 9/18, not at start of day. Trading today was going to be crucial to the question; it should be at ~60% right now with a real possibility of closing below $150.
What happens when there's a conflict like this, especially if closes below $150 today? I ended up with no position but was looking forward to trading it today.
Follow-up: made a corrected version of this question with the closing time fixed (set for after today's actual regular-session close, instead of the premature cutoff this one had), seeded at 60% per my estimate above: https://manifold.markets/BarryJones/will-spcx-close-at-15000-or-higher
@BarryJones It's largely up to the creator when trading closes. Often it will close before the outcome is certain. If you leave a question open until it's certain, all the liquidity subsidy gets consumed for little information value. I'll participate in your market, though!
@benmanns I hadn't considered that. That's interesting then that Manifold priced it at 88% one day out at $154.
@BarryJones Benjamin is right, I closed it before trading started so all the liquidity subsidy wasn’t taken