Is the Susan Collins Polling Rumour true?

Question

Resolves yes if Susan Collins is down by more than the margin of error in the poll. (MOE will be shown in the poll results) Use likely voters first, if not available, use registered voters.  Use final ranked choice if ranked choice is used.

If Leaners are pushed, use leaners pushed result.

EG. if margin of error is 3.9 and Troy Jackson is up 52-48, resolve yes.

If margin of error is 3.9 and Troy Jackson is up 51-49, resolve no

[image] Resolves NO, if AARP or fabrizio or impact don’t release a poll in Maine by the end of the month

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (2 traders, as of Sep 22, 2026).

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