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MANIFOLD
GPT 5.6 released by…?
35
Ṁ1kṀ29k
Dec 31
1.3%
11.59pm ET June 7 2026
19%
11.59pm ET June 15 2026
79%
11.59pm ET June 22 2026
90%
11.59pm ET June 30 2026
92%
11.59pm ET July 7 2026
94%
11.59pm ET July 15 2026
92%
11.59pm ET July 23 2026
97%
11.59pm ET July 31 2026
97%
11.59pm ET December 31 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)

Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Market context
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