Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033?

17

closes 2033

55%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Amount

Ṁ0

Ṁ50

Ṁ100

Payout if YES

Ṁ18 +80%

New probability

56% +1.3%

4x in ten years is a 14.9% annual growth rate. This seems unlikely to happen if not for economic growth driven by AI. This is basically a bet that AI bring significant economic growth within ten years.

Get Ṁ500 play money

## Related questions

Sort by:

MAcs 19R1bought Ṁ10 of NO

The S&P could also rise due to high inflation rates (see the Argentinian stock market as an extreme example). I would give a lower chance if you considered the inflation adjusted growth rate.

Sort by:

0 YES payouts

Ṁ339

Ṁ66

Ṁ14

Ṁ3

Ṁ3

0 NO payouts

Ṁ242

Ṁ114

Ṁ95

Ṁ49

Ṁ15

Ṁ6

## Related questions

Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025?

Byrne Hobart

66% chance

Will Congressional stock trades outperform the S&P 500 by more than 10 percentage points in 2023?

Such

70% chance