it's over. last >0.4000 was at 10-17-2024 10:26 UTC (there's csv export available)

cc @JTX

for the record it reached below 40% for less than hour on October 16 https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1729121543918

If you think there's a 65% chance of it moving up to 60%, why not buy some YES shares on Polymarket, then sell them for profit?

Why is this so far from 50/50? Do people think Polymarket will move in a predictable direction (if so, why does Manifold basically agree with Polymarket)?

I'm betting on the meta-game here, prediction markets have been slow to pick up on the vibe shift

It could also be that traders expect that 60% would happen much sooner, so you're seeing interest rate effects