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I just want to point out for those betting these markets so high - if you expect that when he passes away, the news will come without any forewarning, then pricing this market at 99.5% with one day to go is roughly saying that you expect the guy to live another 200 days. I think that's overconfident.

But since prices in all markets on Manifold will be limited to be 99% or lower from today, this isn't really relevant anymore. Well, I guess still don't bet it to 99% unless you think 100 days sounds reasonable.

@chrisjbillington This is very true and once the market is closed and resolved it wont be reopened. Instead a mod will re-resolve it from Yes, to no. So if Jimmy passes late at night and we dont hear till next morning you might be locked in your yes position and lose a lot of mana.

@chrisjbillington The probability of something with a 1% chance happening if it has that chance 100 times is not 100%, you don't just add the percentages. It's 1 - (1 - n)^p, where n is the probability and p is the amount of times that it has that chance. In this case around 63%. Unless n=1, this will always approach 1, but never reach it. For what it's worth, that formula shows that if n=0.01, the answer becomes greater than .5 when p=69. So if you think Jimmy has a 1% chance of dying today, and every day he has that same chance or greater, you're also in effect saying that he will probably be dead 69 days from now.

@Mana My reasoning was based on thinking of it as exponential distribution, which it sounds like you're also describing. An event with a 1% chance of happening each day has a mean time until the event of 100 days. Sounds like the median is 69 days, so we're not disagreeing, just talking about different measures.