Will Jimmy Carter die on an odd day during 2024? | Manifold

Will Jimmy Carter die on an odd day during 2024?

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52

Ṁ11k

Jan 1

19%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on a day ending with 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 during 2024

Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on a day ending with 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 during 2024

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Why do people keep bidding this down? It should be 50% right?

@JimAusman If you think that there is 100% chance of him dying in 2024 then it would be close to 50% but not exactly. However he could live till Jan 1 2025 in which case this market and the other one for even days both resolve no.

@Testiecool Then you should include 2024 in your title.

see also

@Testiecool does this resolve NO or N/A if Carter survives 2024?

@duck_master Resolve No

bought Ṁ50 NO from 50% to 32%

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