Will Jimmy Carter Survive the second quarter of 2024 (Apr 1 - June 30)

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Ṁ23k

resolved Jul 3

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves Yes if Jimmy survives the second quarter of 2024 (Apr 1 - June 30); Resolves No otherwise

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Death markets

#Longevity

#Jimmy Carter

Get

1,000

and

3.00

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@JCDM Can resolve YES, thank you!

bought Ṁ15 NO

1% in 4 days is way too low relative to the liquid longer term ones

bought Ṁ100 YES from 98.8% to 98.9%

The long term ones have his survival far lower than the actual probability, which is more like 90% to reach 100.

Empirically, there is a more than 75% chance he does not.

@MrBrien What “empirics” are you looking at 😂

@potatopenguin If Jimmy Carter does not pass in May, the accumulated effects of his condition and continued decline likely increase the probability for June. This assumes no significant improvements or unexpected stabilization.

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