Will Jimmy Carter Survive the second quarter of 2024 (Apr 1 - June 30)
22
111
1k
Jul 1
73%
chance

Resolves Yes if Jimmy survives the second quarter of 2024 (Apr 1 - June 30); Resolves No otherwise

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Empirically, there is a more than 75% chance he does not.

@MrBrien What “empirics” are you looking at 😂

@potatopenguin If Jimmy Carter does not pass in May, the accumulated effects of his condition and continued decline likely increase the probability for June. This assumes no significant improvements or unexpected stabilization.