This market resolves YES if, during November, there is a Google search term which spikes like crazy. This is determined based on the following method:
On Google Trends, pick "Worldwide" and "Web Search".
Pick a search term that you want to check for craziness.
Pick "google" as the search term to compare to.
Look at the end-of-day scores for "google" and [term]. The [term] : google ratio is the craziness score (C).
If on one of the days, C(term, day) > 0.5, and there exists a day in the previous 30 days such that C(term, day) / C(term, past_day) > 5, then this term is indeed CRAZY, and the market resolves YES.
Important exception: scheduled events which are fully expected to trend ahead of time do not count as crazy, even if they meet the craziness criteria. This includes things like:
Olympics
World Cup
Big movie releases
U.S. presidential elections
Some events in recent years which did meet the craziness criteria are:
Assassination of Qasem Soleimani
Death of Kobe Bryant
COVID-19 pandemic
January 6 capitol riots
Russian invasion of Ukraine
Will Smith slapping Chris Rock
Death of Queen Elizabeth II
Israel-Gaza war
Trump assassination attempt
Biden dropping out of election
Iran-Israel war
Charlie Kirk assassination
Due to the partially subjective criteria, I am not betting in this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,444 | |
| 2 | Ṁ213 | |
| 3 | Ṁ114 | |
| 4 | Ṁ105 | |
| 5 | Ṁ85 |
People are also trading
> Flip in Republicans: from blocking the release of the Epstein files and not even swearing in Garcìa, a new senator for just 2 months, simply to prevent her from filing the resolution to call the vote and get a majority in the Senate - her signature.. to suddenly totally flipping and supporting the release, with only one senator voting against.
But Trump Suck Dick is indeed crazy too, it may contribute to SouthPark or Sora videos
GG
"jays" and "dodgers" both spiked, but they don't count because they fall under the scheduled events rule.