Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the City of Chicago files for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code on or before December 31, 2035. The primary source for verification will be official court filings or announcements from the City of Chicago's government. If no such filing occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of 2025, Chicago faces significant fiscal challenges, including a projected budget deficit nearing $1 billion for the upcoming fiscal year. (axios.com) The city's debt service appropriations are projected to be 16.8% of total local fund net appropriations in FY2025, indicating a substantial debt burden. (civicfed.org) Additionally, Illinois state law currently prohibits municipalities from filing for bankruptcy, limiting Chicago's options for addressing its financial issues through legal debt restructuring. (chicagobusiness.com)

Considerations

While Chicago's financial situation is precarious, the state's prohibition on municipal bankruptcy filings means that, barring legislative changes, the city cannot currently pursue bankruptcy as a solution. Traders should monitor both Chicago's fiscal policies and any potential changes in state legislation that might affect the city's ability to file for bankruptcy before 2035.