https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem

If at least 1 million people in the US experience some noticeable and significant disruption as a direct result of Y2k38, this resolves YES.

The impact must be caused by the bug itself, not people preparing for or freaking out about the possibility. As an exception: If there's some highly disruptive last-minute "preparation" like "we're shutting down this entire system on December 30th because we didn't prepare it in time", I'll count that as having been caused by the bug. Bugs that occur more than a few days before or after January 19th do still count.

The bug doesn't have to take place in the US, just the impact. If Y2k38 causes some nuclear missiles from Russia to accidentally hit New York, this resolves YES.

There doesn't need to be hard evidence that the issue was caused by unix time rolling over, but it needs to seem highly likely.

I won't bet.