Will @TheSkeward's profit be above M$18,000 at the end of March?
Will @TheSkeward's profit be above M$18,000 at the end of March?
7
170Ṁ693resolved Apr 3
Resolved
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This market resolves based on TheSkeward's displayed profit at the exact time of market close. That close date will not be changed after market creation. Any bugs affecting their profit are ignored; the true profit is what matters.
As an exception, if anyone appears to be manipulating their profit in order to turn a profit here, I will resolve this market in whatever way best punishes the manipulators. That includes TheSkeward themselves.
I will not bet in this market.
The spirit of this market is that it's solely about prediction, and should not influence what it's trying to measure in any way. In the event of ambiguity or disagreement, I will do my best to resolve it in accordance with that spirit.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.