Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?
204
2kṀ100k
resolved Dec 26
Resolved
YES

Upon market close, I will look at the new "users" tab and count up how many users there are in each column. If the number of users in the YES column is greater than the NO column, this resovles to YES. If not, it resolves to NO.

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predictedYES 2y

@IsaacKing Honestly I thank you for creating this market. It was a fun one.

But you can quit trying to convince me that you contributed positively to the market resolving to Yes (other than the fact that you resolved the market correctly as the creator)

predictedYES 2y

Indulge me one final attempt.

I will send M$100 to anyone who convinces Zorn that I should get the M$300. 😉

predictedYES 2y

@Zorn I think there’s actually a strong case for Isaac! He was certainly a committed player, and he was definitely putting mana on the line to influence people to vote NO prior to your comment. His switching to YES, which partially caused my switching to YES, was really an inflection point in the market. Isn’t it better to encourage a defection anyway than a new person working for YES, since this way NO loses a contributor?

Also, when he posted that comment on the market, I laughed out loud. I think it’s hilarious and amazing and the sort of fun strategy that emerges on a fun meta market! Isaac King for the M$300.

(Full disclosure: I was writing this before he posted the comment with the bribe! I actually believe this. However, the bribe increased my effort in writing it.)

predictedYES 2y

@Conflux @IsaacKing I'm going to send $150 to Isaac for making this a lively market with his comments, his briberies and deflections.

Still not my teammate

predictedYES 2y

@IsaacKing link sent, check your notification

predictedYES 2y

@Zorn don't listen to these leeches, You obviously should give me that 300M

predictedYES 2y

@Zorn Much appreciated. And a note for the future, just to clear the air if needed; If you actually get an agreement from me to be your teammate, I'll always honor it. I hope we can cooperate to our mutual benefit on future markets. :)

predictedYES 2y

@IsaacKing I should have lock you in on the Yes team with a contract early on. Would have saved me lots of headache.

Let's see if we would have a chance to actually be on the same team next time

2y

Alright, good game everybody.

2y

If team YES wins and Zorn judges me worthy of their M$300, I will distribute M$50 among anyone who switched from team NO to team YES right before market close.

predictedYES 2y

@IsaacKing are you kidding me?

predictedYES 2y

@Zorn Nope, that was a real offer!

predictedYES 2y

@IsaacKing You have the most contribution towards the market resolving to No. None other.

2y

@Zorn He will literally resolved the market to yes just now.

predictedYES 2y

@IsaacKing You're a good market creator. Not a good teammate

predictedYES 2y
predictedYES 2y

@Zorn Disagree! My comment pointing out the strong incentive in favor of people defecting to team NO was correct. I took away that incentive by buying it all up and then selling it at a lower price, and then I ensured the market resolved YES so I didn't have to pay out my offer to NO traders.

predictedYES 2y

@Zorn Also yes, technically, Nikita is right. Me clicking the "resolve to yes" button was a strong contribution towards this market resolving to YES. But I'd understand if you didn't want to count that bit.

predictedYES 2y

@Zorn I was watching share movements and my offer to team NO caused almost nobody to switch teams. (Including last-minute, as evidenced by the fact that this resolved to YES.)

predictedYES 2y

@IsaacKing You would make a good lawyer

predictedYES 2y

@Conflux Back me up here. Surely you saw I was on team YES as soon as you realized that it would benefit me to not have to pay out my offer to team NO.

predictedYES 2y

@Zorn Can I get that M$300? 🙃 Asking just in case.

2y

@NikitaSkovoroda hey, I am top 4 and I always was on YES side (in my soul)

predictedYES 2y

@NikitaSkovoroda I didn't closely follow what you did. Wanna give me a brief summary of how you contributed?

predictedYES 2y

@Zorn Welp, we switched back and forth a few times. And stayed on Yes in the last moment. 🙃 That's pretty much all. Also, at least one person whom I directly referred to this market are on Yes as a result, one other sold their No option when I asked them, and none kept No.

Yes, it's not much, but my question is -- do you have a better candidate?

predictedYES 2y

@f26a The number of shares is not important in this market.

predictedYES 2y

@NikitaSkovoroda yeah, he has a better candidate: me

predictedYES 2y

@Zorn I held YES since defecting at Dec 24, 1:08am. I didn't even get the M20 that was promised at Dec 23, 9:11am.

predictedYES 2y

@NikitaSkovoroda I don't have a better candidate. You win the 300mana!

predictedYES 2y

@NikitaSkovoroda
bet 300Mana (or more) on this market and I will resolve this market to Yes
https://manifold.markets/Zorn/for-trasnfer-to-nikitaskovoroda

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