Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 26

Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?

86%

chance

Upon market close, I will look at the new "users" tab and count up how many users there are in each column. If the number of users in the YES column is greater than the NO column, this resovles to YES. If not, it resolves to NO.

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sold Ṁ107 of YES

I switched to NO, its very lucrative rn

Mason Maternowski

is predicting YES at 83%

@NiclasKupper Your no shares are going to ZERO!

is predicting YES at 74%

Do bot users count?

is predicting NO at 74%

@Paul Yes.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

This is a coordination problem: you win if you vote with the majority. (Is this what they call a Keynesian beauty contest? It's different from "resolves to MKT" because here each user gets one vote.)

The resolution condition is almost, but not quite, symmetric: in the event of a tie, it resolves to NO.

So the obvious solution is for everyone to coordinate on NO, and y'all should do that.

@Boklam I don't think this is actually a coordination problem. If everyone bets on NO, they're not any better off as a group than if half of them bet on NO and half bet on YES. This is a zero-sum game.

It is a Keynesian beauty contest, and it rewards people who are able to coordinate with a small group of other traders to flip the market in their preferred direction.

Manifold DreamBot

Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ31 NO at 86% (cancelled)

Mason Maternowski

bought Ṁ183 YES from 83% to 87%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ57/Ṁ100 YES at 83% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ20 NO from 84% to 81%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 87% to 84%

sold Ṁ40 YES from 88% to 87%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 89% to 88%

bought Ṁ1 NO at 89%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 NO at 89% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ70 NO from 80% to 90%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ5 YES at 80%

bought Ṁ80 NO from 91% to 80%

bought Ṁ3 NO at 91%

sold Ṁ107 YES from 92% to 91%

bought Ṁ50 YES at 92%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ146/Ṁ150 YES at 92% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ300 YES from 85% to 90%

bought Ṁ50 YES from 83% to 85%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 83%

Mason Maternowski

bought Ṁ154 YES from 76% to 83%

bought Ṁ25 YES from 74% to 76%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 74% (cancelled)

William Hargraves (bot)

bought Ṁ7 NO from 76% to 75%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ10 NO at 76% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ75 YES from 71% to 77%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ5 NO at 71%

sold Ṁ19 NO from 68% to 72%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 66% to 68%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 65% to 66%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ5 NO at 65% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 YES from 62% to 66%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 62%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ5 NO at 60% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 61%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 59%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 57% (cancelled)

Mordecai Weynberg

bought Ṁ5 YES from 58% to 59%

Mordecai Weynberg

bought Ṁ5 YES from 56% to 58%

Mordecai Weynberg

bought Ṁ5 YES from 55% to 56%

Mordecai Weynberg

bought Ṁ5 YES from 54% to 55%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 YES at 54% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 NO from 60% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 60%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 61% to 57%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 70% to 61%

bought Ṁ35 YES from 50% to 70%

sold Ṁ11 YES from 60% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 52% to 60%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 41% to 52%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 41%