IsaacKing avatar
closes Dec 26
Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?
86%
chance

Upon market close, I will look at the new "users" tab and count up how many users there are in each column. If the number of users in the YES column is greater than the NO column, this resovles to YES. If not, it resolves to NO.

Sort by:
NiclasKupper avatar
Niclas Kupper
sold Ṁ107 of YES

I switched to NO, its very lucrative rn

MasonMaternowski avatar
Mason Maternowski
is predicting YES at 83%

@NiclasKupper Your no shares are going to ZERO!

Paul avatar
Paul Hobbs
is predicting YES at 74%

Do bot users count?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 74%

@Paul Yes.

Boklam avatar
Boklam
bought Ṁ10 of NO

This is a coordination problem: you win if you vote with the majority. (Is this what they call a Keynesian beauty contest? It's different from "resolves to MKT" because here each user gets one vote.)

The resolution condition is almost, but not quite, symmetric: in the event of a tie, it resolves to NO.

So the obvious solution is for everyone to coordinate on NO, and y'all should do that.

IsaacKing avatar

@Boklam I don't think this is actually a coordination problem. If everyone bets on NO, they're not any better off as a group than if half of them bet on NO and half bet on YES. This is a zero-sum game.

It is a Keynesian beauty contest, and it rewards people who are able to coordinate with a small group of other traders to flip the market in their preferred direction.

ManifoldDream avatar

Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition