Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033?
➕
Plus
52
Ṁ3903
2033
52%
chance

They can be president for any length of time.

This market closes right after inaguration day 2033.

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Plot twist: Trump wins but then comes out as trans

Terminology nitpick: your criteria are best characterized as "female or trans" - one can be GNC and cis (e.g. man who wears dresses and makeup; stone butch)

@tcheasdfjkl Ah, true. I've removed those criteria as they weren't really necessary anyway.

thanks!

follow-up question: how GNC does someone have to be for this to resolve YES? if Joe Biden habitually painted his nails glittery purple but otherwise presented exactly how he does today, would that count?

(I think no presidents we've actually had have been anywhere near an edge case, but still)

@tcheasdfjkl Nail-painting counts. I don't have a great way to formalize this. :)

@tcheasdfjkl Have you not seen Jeffrey Epstein’s painting of Bill Clinton in Monica’s dress?? LOL.

predicts YES

@IsaacKing thanks, that's helpful for clarifying a general sense of what counts!

@tcheasdfjkl Notably, it has to be their normal presentation. A president getting drunk at a party and painting their nails one time doesn't count.

predicts YES

@IsaacKing yeah that makes sense, that's why I included "habitually" in my example

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