Will Manifold succumb to Pascal's Mugging?
32
610Ṁ5147
resolved Dec 11
Resolved
NO

This market resolves NO. Then, if I have the financial ability to do so, I will send each trader M$1,000,000,000 per YES share they held at market close.

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predictedNO

Sorry for the delay, just resolved the market. Unfortunately I do not currently have M$4,807,000,000,000, nor the USD $48,070,000,000 required to purchase it.

predictedYES

@IsaacKing Will you pay us if you get that money in the future?

predictedNO

@Yev Nope.

predictedYES

Where is my M$1,000,000,000,000?

predictedNO

Will this market be resolving?

predictedYES

@RogerYang And, perhaps more importantly, AM I RICH NOW!?!??!

I don't understand what's going on here but I'll flag this as misresolved if I don't get my money

predictedYES

@L a promise is a promise

(unless it resolves n/a, which I think you should do to maintain integrity)

predictedNO

@L Description says "if I have the financial ability to do so" which is almost certainly false, so no dishonesty!

predictedYES

@WilliamEhlhardt oh ok fair enough then

Im getting Mugged!

I’m gonna be rich y’all!!

Adjusted for inflation or not?

predictedNO

@Yev Not adjusted, so you will unfortunately be missing out on that 0.8% difference.

perhaps you are secretly elon musk

predictedNO

@a You never know!

Me being secretly a billionaire is actually within the realm of plausibility! And I've already demonstrated a willingness to lose large amounts of mana in the pursuit of fun. Surely the expected value of betting YES here is positive.

@IsaacKing Very positive, considering that the market can create large numbers of shares even though everyone's positions on net are neutral. 🙂

@jack I thought it was impossible for one person to hold both YES and NO shares at the same time?

predictedYES

@IsaacKing One account, yes. One person, no. See the trade history. Also, I could just collaborate with someone else - promise that we'll split the profits if there are profits, and otherwise we both lose nothing.

predictedNO

@jack Ah, true. Maybe I should have added a rule that it only counts if they bet against me rather than someone else. Oh well, too late now.

@IsaacKing You being a billionaire is within the realm of plausibility. You having enough spare change that you could spend a billion on a lark is much less plausible. It's hard to imagine anyone spending more than a small fraction of their income (say ~1 months's income) on this sort of joke, and there are very few people for whom that number is one billion.

@Boklam It does seem unlikely. But is it less than 0.0000001% likely?

predictedYES

@jack Goddamn it Jack! He said "if I have the financial ability to do so," you're ruining for the yes of us YES holders.

predictedYES

*ruining it for the rest of us

predictedYES

@Botlab haha I thought about that and am willing to reduce my yes position. As you can see, I have created some NO limit orders. Just purchase my YES from me and you can be rich! (Now who is doing the mugging?)

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