The reliability of probabilities on Manifold decreases as it moves further from 50%. A market being at 1% rather than 0.1% indicates pretty much nothing about the actual probability of the event; it's just not worth tying up mana for such a tiny return on investment.

This is a huge problem for markets on unlikely but high impact events such as nuclear war; their probabilities are often meaningless.

Feel free to suggest solutions in the comments.