Will Manifold Markets be mentioned on the Wikipedia page about prediction markets at the end of February 2023?
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resolved Mar 2
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YES

Must have been there consistently for at least 2 weeks. (Not counting an edit removing it that was reverted almost immediately.)

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predictedYES

Y'all can blame me for putting Manifold Markets on the Wikipedia page for prediction markets :P

predictedYES

Looks to me like this should resolve YES, any concerns?

Still there (has been there for weeks), and no discussion on the talk page about having to remove it. It will very likely stay.

predictedNO

@egroj But now you've just provided an incentive for someone to write up a serious argument against it!

predictedYES

@IsaacKing it has a good citation and there is one more that can be added, very unlikely (less than 8% 😄) that an editor will not revert the change if someone tries to remove it. I'm assuming the description has already been fulfilled ("consistently for at least 2 weeks"), so all is needed is to be there by the end of the month

predictedYES

There’s also a passing mention in a piece on Harvard’s Nieman Lab, but I would not push it yet without a bit stronger third source, because transparent reference farming – using anything tangentially relevant – can annoy some editors.

Lol that citation. Looks like it's sticking though.

Looking at the edit history of this Wikipedia page it looks like Manifold was last added in March to be deleted for not being notable a week later. Looks like a number of prediction markets based on crypto keep getting added and removed with this argument. This market seems a bit overconfident given that history and Wikipedia sometimes being quite unreasonable about this kind of thing.

predictedYES

@catfromdevnull The currently listed ones (disclaimer: I only checked a couple) are backed up by references to Nature and Vox. It’s basically fully, 0% vs 100%, conditional on Manifold getting anything close to that kind of coverage.

How does this market resolve in the case of a last minute edit war?

@ForrestTaylor If the edit war is someone trying to force it onto the page last-minute, resolves NO. If it's been on the page for a while with no issue and the edit war is someone trying to remove it last-minute, resolves YES.

Basically, I'm not going to let someone vandalize the page in order to manipulate this market against Wikipedia editor consensus.

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