Will Magic Arena's card pool contain at least half of the entire Magic card pool before 2028?
Will Magic Arena's card pool contain at least half of the entire Magic card pool before 2028?
10
170Ṁ2092028
25%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The "entire Magic card pool" includes all cards legal in a Vintage tournament, plus all cards legal in any format on Arena.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
At the end of 2025 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be Black?
36% chance
Will the Magic Arena card pool contain Panglacial Wurm before 2026?
9% chance
At the end of 2025 will the most used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be used in 50% or more of decks?
15% chance
At the end of 2025 will the most used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be used in 45% or more of decks?
20% chance
Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2026?
14% chance
In 2025, will a Magic: The Gathering card be banned within 2 weeks of becoming legal in a format?
18% chance
Will any of my Magic cards be stolen before the end of 2025?
14% chance
Will Magic: The Gathering Arena introduce bots in multiplayer by the end of 2025?
30% chance
In 2025, will a Magic: The Gathering card be banned within 4 weeks of becoming legal in a format?
54% chance
Will Magic the Gathering unban any of the 7 'racist' cards before the end of 2028?
3% chance