@IsaacKing Could you make this market publicly visible?

@Akzzz123 No, the admins seem to have hidden it for some reason. You'd have to ask them why.

@DavidChee?

@IsaacKing not sure why, relisted it for now. I'll double check if someone relisted it intentionally and ask why if so.

For what it's worth, I think the response for "Artificial intelligence" would be much higher than "Advancement of computers/technology" (e.g., the latter sounds dry and, if pressed, I think people might think of Y2K, emails, or maybe computer chip shortages, more than AI) so I think the title of this question might be misleading people.

@JacyAnthis Hmm. I mean there isn't any other option on the poll that fits "AI" better.

@IsaacKing I don't know for sure, but it kind of looks like they do this as an open-response question, and then code the responses into categories afterwards. So anyone who does happen to mention AI in their response would just get put into that "technological progress" bucket.

Given that, it's possible (but unlikely) they might change their coding to have an explicit bucket for "AI," if that turns up as a sufficiently common theme in future polls. I'm assuming that if "AI" does turn up as its own category in the 2023 poll, the resolution would include that category too?

@NLeseul as a member of the Gallup panel I can confirm that this is an open ended question, you can write in anything you want. But I have no idea how they do the categorization.

@JacyAnthis Its open ended, and so few people are writing AI that it has to be lumped into advancement of technology.

@NLeseul Interesting! I didn't know. Thanks.

I didn't know that either. If "AI" becomes its own category, this market will switch to caring about that instead.

@IsaacKing Fwitw I didn't answer anything AI related until the most recent poll. My answer until recently was something like degradation of democracy, and for the most recent one I put lack of regulation of AI.

I think most people don't appreciate just how rapidly AI is going to bring changes that impact a lot of people's lives. I don't think concern will ramp up by the metric used here until changes start to be more apparent, though, and I don't think they'll be apparent enough to the average person by the end of 2023.

IMO, Manifold users massively overestimate the amount to which the american public cares about AI. Best evidence for this is the Scott's AI vs abortion market.

I bet most of the votes for "Advancement of computers/technology" in this poll are just old people annoyed at technology :D

Do we know how the answers are scored? Does someone go through what each respondent writes individually and classify it as one of the categories listed?

Although, it’s probably unlikely, I just want to clarify: if it reaches 1% in one month, then falls back down below, that still counts as yes?

@MatthewRitter Correct

How frequently is the poll taken, do we know? I looked but didn't see anything

@PipFoweraker Well the link I included shows a poll for every month, so I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say "once a month". :)