Will there be a "low scorigami" before 2030?
Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?
Will Superalignment succeed?
[1000M subsidy] What will have been the most important thing to happen in 2023?
Will I be convinced the spirit of Moore's Law is dead as of January 1, 2024?
Will Conjecture produce work that they believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?
Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?
Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?
Will @MartinRandall pass the Turing test by the end of October, 2023?
Will the Future of Humanity Institute exist in 2030?
Will Conjecture produce work that I believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?
Will 80,000 Hours be mentioned in Going Infinite by Michael Lewis?
Will I find autism (or rather, allism) to be an ideology during 2023?
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?
Will human mathematicians be mostly obsolete by 2030?
Levi Finkelstein [BANNED]
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043?
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?