Will civilian deaths in Ukraine surpass 10,000 by the end of 2023?
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resolved Apr 16
Resolved
YES
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Resolution please @IsaacKing

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

The OHCHR (which is statistica's source) recently published this report on the human rights situation in Ukraine:

https://reliefweb.int/attachments/1d97a341-d772-4b56-b7ab-41d6e77ea6d2/2024-03-26%20OHCHR%2038th%20Periodic%20Report.pdf

It contains on page 10 this chart of civilian casualties by month:

Adding up the numbers for each month to Dec 2023 gives 10,362.

I can't figure out (without paying, anyway) how to see statistica's past data to check if it agrees with this chart. But it is at least consistent - currently statistica says 10,582 deaths up to Feb 15th 2024. And the above chart has 10,528 up to end of January, and 10,675 up to end of February. 10,582 is about halfway in between, so that seems to check out.

I think this should be good enough to resolve YES @IsaacKing

Reopening for trading until we know the answer.

If Statista only updates to a further time frame, like up to February, then I'll look into alternative sources that match its numbers.

predicted NO

It seems we don't have data since September. @IsaacKing will you wait for data encompassing the end of 2023, or resolve on the latest data available at end-of-year 2023?

If the former, it's possible that the next update might pertain to a period overlapping both 2023 and 2024, such that if it might not be possible to discern how many civilian deaths were in 2023 specifically.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington I'll wait until we know how many were in 2023.

predicted NO

The statistica data source seems to not have updated to the latest release from the OHCHR, which is also not super recent:

https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/09/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-24-september-2023