The market in question was /DanielBalchev/will-cgp-grey-upload-a-video-to-his
This resolves YES if CGP Grey makes any claim that that market, or Manifold in general, or market manipulation in general, was a factor in their decision of when to release that video.
Otherwise this resolves NO at the end of 2024.
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@levifinkelstein Austin's quote does seem pretty definitive that such an admission won't be forthcoming... does anyone object to me resolving this market to NO immediately?
@IsaacKing If he's telling truth that the market didn't influence him, there's no point in waiting 8 more months to resolve. If he's lying, you would of course want to leave it open, but that theory raises very difficult questions like 1) why we he lie about something so low-stakes, 2) how would we know, and 3) what would induce him to admit he was lying in the next 8 months.
No it didn't. I was already aiming to have a video up before the end of the month before I saw the market. I'm curious to know how that site resolves the bets that were made after the video was released but before the market closed. Those last few minutes are pretty wild: https://manifold.markets/DanielBalchev/will-cgp-grey-upload-a-video-to-his