This is another experiment in self-resolving markets. Some previous attempts:

And all three of those have the issue that they'll tend to stabalize a little below 100% or above 0%, since it's so cheap for a single trader to keep the probability from going all the way to one extreme.

This market is a new attempt with I hope will avoid the problems of the previous 3 types. I expect it to have its own new and exciting problems instead. :)

Upon market close, I will post a YES/NO poll in which each Manifold account can only vote once. The poll will 

 be anonymous; everyone will be able to see who voted for what. This market resolves to the majority result of the poll. (For example, if 49% of voters vote YES and 51% vote NO, this market resolves to NO.)

But each of those has their own downsides that increase the chance of an incorrect resolution: