Will at least five people on Manifold accuse me in good faith of bias by the end of May?
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resolved Sep 10
Resolved
NO

Partially inspired by @CarsonGale's /CarsonGale/will-anyone-on-twitter-make-a-credi

Recently a bunch of people have accused me of being biased in my favor on a market of mine. All of these claims that I've seen so far have been pretty easy to dismiss; they're made with inflammatory language, coming from people who already don't like me, and the factual claims often make no sense. (e.g. claiming that I made a decision to benefit myself as a trader when in fact that descision harms me.)

But obviously I must be biased in many ways, and I'd appreciate it if people voiced any such suspicions they have so that I can become more aware of those biases. (I just mean in general, not necessarily about that market in particular.) I'll never (or at least I aspire not to) take offense to a good faith notification of "hey, I think you may be engaging in motivated reasoning. Here's my evidence for that". In case it wasn't obvious, I hereby give permission to anyone on Manifold to bring up such a concern.

If there seems to be disageement over whether a certain accusation was made in good faith, I'll delegate the decision to a vote among non-me trustworthyish users.

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Pretty sure this didn't happen; if I missed some let me know.

First one acquired from @Conflux.

@IsaacKing Yeah, I did say that I thought you were rationalizing. I’m less sure of it now, but I did believe it was reasonably likely when I said it, so it was good-faith.

Do you count bias against yourself?

@CarsonGale I guess that would count, sure. I'd be concerned that someone making such an "accusation" isn't doing it in good faith though; I've seen some communities where it's common for people to talk about how they're biased against themselves, and their friends rush in to affirm this statement, when in reality it's just an attempt to increase their status via fake humility.

Since this market suggests that there's a much higher chance of a third party finding that this claim is true than you considering the claim to be true yourself, doesn't that suggest that the market as a whole is accusing you of bias?

@SimonGrayson No, it could equally well be accusing Tornado of bias. All it shows is that Tornado and I have different judgement on what counts as good faith.

What types of bias are necessary, and how specific do the accusations have to be? Anyone can pull up a list of human cognitive biases and in good faith accuse you of having them, by virtue of being human. But presumably something a little more meaningful is required than that for this market.

@JosephNoonan Needs to be specific and useful, not just "you're a human therefore you have recency bias".