Will at least 40 people come to a New Year’s Resolutions live event on the Manifold Discord?
23
450Ṁ13k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if there is a point in time on New Year's Day (in any time zone) when there are at least 40 people in a voice channel of the official Manifold Markets Discord server, and NO otherwise. If I'm not on at the time, I will require screenshot evidence. I won't check whether each of the people on the call resolves at least one market for New Year's.

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predictedNO

It's past 12 UTC so I think this can resolve.

I will send a manalink for M$30 to anyone who joins the lounge voice channel if it gets us up to 40.

(You don't have to participate, you can just join with your mic muted and the sound off and then ignore it until the end of the day.)

predictedNO

@IsaacKing lmao this would be surprising if it it worked

predictedYES

@levifinkelstein M$30 for <5 seconds of effort? People literally just click the "join" button and that's it.

predictedNO

@IsaacKing yeah but then you have to make sure your computer is on and you can't use your discord account for other VS stuff

@IsaacKing (You have to actually stay in the channel, obviously.)

This will not work. If anyone has their video on, the channel is limited to 25 people. We just need 1 person with video in each voice channel (lounge and the destiny one) to stop team YES.

@Yev Feel free to bet more on NO!

In the mean time, team YES should join anyway. It's costless even if we fail.

Gah, that 30% YES limit order went away at the wrong second.

@Gurkenglas yeah I got lucky, or unlucky at just the right or wrong time lol

@Gurkenglas uugh and then I hit sell on YES shares rather than buying no order, thinking there's no way it would spike back to 25% like that

@Jacknaut I don't think Alana would have bought it back to 30% if you hadn't sold to 5%.

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