Will any mass-produced electric car or truck have a range of at least 1000 miles by the end of 2029?

Technology•Tesla

190

Ṁ6.3K

Ṁ1.1K

2030

13%

chance

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As of market creation, the longest range EV is the Lucid Air car at around 500 miles. The Tesla cybertruck and semi also both advertise a range of around 500 miles, though it remains to be seen if those claims will be true.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/04/toyota-claims-battery-breakthrough-electric-cars

Toyota claims battery breakthrough in potential boost for electric cars

Japanese firm believes it could make a solid-state battery with a range of 745 miles that charges in 10 minutes

745 around 2027-2028

932 later on (2029-2030??)

https://www.topspeed.com/toyotas-solid-state-batteries-up-to-932-miles/

I don’t see 1000 miles happening from current news before 2030.

I don’t think there’s enough demand for such a range, for a mass produced car the weight would probably be astronomical too. I’m not brave enough to put my money we’re my mouth is though.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

What's the threshold for mass production? Might be vaporware, but the top model from Aptera claims* 1000mi range.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptera_Motors

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@AlexK Neat! Looks like they're been promising those cars are just around the corner for several years now, but they keep getting delayed. If they ever actually ship to customers and really have the advertised range, this'll resolve to YES.

bought Ṁ65 of NO

The problem with the Tesla semi is it takes hours to charge 100 percent (500 mile range), but only 30 mins to charge to 80 percent (400 mile range).

predicts YES

@BTE thats not a part of the market tho

bought Ṁ35 of NO

@andrewelawrence I thought it was mentioned in the description? Having thought about it a semi driver might find great value in the ability to go 1,000 miles without stopping. Tesla should start building semi-trailers with extra battery packs to boost range?

predicts NO

You could even cover the tops of the trailers with solar panels and make the trailers especially friendly to the new Tesla robots. The more I think about this the more sense it makes. I don't think they are doing anything like this yet, but that is the practical way to get to 1,000 mile range by 2029.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

explosion theory indicates yes unless hampered by US policy

bought Ṁ45 of NO

@andrewelawrence What is explosion theory?

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@BTE just that tech advances at exponential rates and so an initial breakthrough will be progressively followed by more

predicts YES

@andrewelawrence so it would be logical that by 2029 we have a double in navigable distance (thinking Tesla trucks 500mi range - tho others might have longer I'm unsure)

predicts NO

@andrewelawrence That makes zero sense. Batteries have been around a long time and there has been no such exponential growth. The only way this is possible is if the cars start to be made of solar panels, but by 2029? 1 percent chance.

predicts YES

@BTE

FOTW# 1167, January 4, 2021: Median Driving Range of All-Electric Vehicles Tops 250 Miles for Model Year 2020 | Department of Energy

predicts YES

@andrewelawrence 5x increase in 10 years - not exponential but still considerable, and with the growing interest and investment in EVs whose to say where it will be in 7 more years

predicts YES

@andrewelawrence I'm not arguing its definitely gonna be there but I think there's more than an 18% change (market % rn) - maybe more like 35/40

Energy density has about tripled in 20 years. Another doubling would get us there. Price has also been falling exponentially.

predicts NO

that first chart looks awfully flat. It would take 50 years to double.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing Actually that first chart seems to indicate another doubling is off the table. What is the catalyst to restart growth? Without one the current trends never make it.

predicts NO

The information in the shared charts seems to indicate that you need bigger batteries to get more range and that has to come at the expense of something else. You think people will trade driving performance for greater range? Also, I believe you can already buy a trailer that is covered in solar panels for a Tesla and get 1,000+ range, so why make the cars themselves with such range when you make a lot more money charging for the trailer?

@BTE Have a link? I'm confused as to how solar panels could allow a Tesla to triple its range considering how little energy is actually in sunlight.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing https://electrek.co/2022/07/04/tesla-unveils-solar-range-extender-trailer-spacex-starlink-internet-terminal/ I misremembered the range it added, which appears to be trivial. Adding battery packs to trailers to extend semi-trucks range by extension is possible. Trailers spend a lot of time idling that could be charging time.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing I thought it was 500 mile boost but it is 50.