Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?
37
2.9k
2030
40%
chance

The GPT may not use external plugins. It may write and execute its own code. Both engines must have the same amount of time per move.

The competition must use a version of Stockfish prior to 2024, potentially being updated to better use future hardware.

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You know 2023 Stockfish has a neutral net right?

predicts YES

@NivlacM Ah, hmm. Ok, I'll use 2023 Stockfish then, allowing it to be updated to better utilize any future hardware advances.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 11% to 13%

2023 Stockfish or 2030 Stockfish?

predicts NO

@NivlacM I hope the answer is 2023 otherwise we're also betting on stockfish not improving dramatically by any means including LLMs

predicts YES

@NivlacM 2030 Stockfish.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing hmm, that means YES = ("future LLMs useful relative to 2023 known best tech for chess" AND Stockfish hasn't incorporated them)

I'd like to just bet on "future LLMs useful relative to 2023 known best tech for chess"

predicts YES

@Ernie See the second line of the description.

That suggestion would be unfair to Stockfish if a new computing architecture is developed.

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