As the election approaches I'll probably add more details about my political orientation, but for now I'm curious what people will predict based on my external behavior.
Since it is illegal to offer or accept payment for voting a certain way, I will not be betting in this market. (I need to keep M$1 on each answer in order to prevent them from disappearing, but I'll sell all those shares before resolving this market.)
Related questions
@IsaacKing I'm curious your current thoughts; we are a decent bit closer and we have a better market mechanism!
@RobertCousineau The chance that my votes make an impact is negligible, so if it's a pain I'll probably abstain. I think I signed up to get a mail-in ballot though, so it might be easy. In which case, probably Democrat. Biden isn't going to make the world better, but he's not going to make it worse either, whereas Trump probably would do the latter. No other options, so...
@IsaacKing I'm certainly not one to reccomend the Libertarian party (emphasis on capital L), but that is another option (especially if your vote is in a safe state). Think of how beautiful it would be if they hit 5%!
@RobertCousineau Oh that's true, I forgot there are benefits to voting for them even if they don't win. I'm in Florida.
@IsaacKing :) with respect to benefit even if they don't win! It can make it actually count as a protest vote!
From what I can see of current odds in Florida, it's going to go Republican. The recent 538 polls show Republicans firmly in the lead (both Trump and especially Desantis).
This market has it as 10% it goes Dem:
@LivInTheLookingGlass I live in British Columbia, Canada. Prior to moving there, I lived in Florida, which is also where I'm staying right now for a few weeks. I travel frequently for work, so I spend a fair amount of time in both locations, and also various other cities around North America.