This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!

As Texas trends further towards the Democrats, Florida is seen today as the new safe Republican stronghold. A combination of demographic shifts, immigration from different states, and Ron DeSantis' impact as Governor has transformed the Sunshine State from a perennial competitive toss-up state to one that is solidly in the GOP camp. This trend can be demonstrated in the past few election cycles with Trump in 2020 building on the margin of victory that he accomplished in 2016.

2004: Bush (5.0)

2008: Obama (2.8)

2012: Obama (0.9)

2016: Trump (1.2)

2020: Trump (3.3)

Will Joe Biden and the Democrats be able to buck this trend and score an election victory? If so, market will resolve as YES, if Florida stays red, market will resolve as NO.