When will mind-reading become reliable in an adversarial context?
20
134
1.2k
2050
0.7%
2024
1.3%
2025
1.3%
2026
5%
2027
1.2%
2028
1.2%
2029
1.2%
2030
1.2%
2031
1.2%
2032
1.2%
2033
1.7%
2034
2%
2035
2%
2036
3%
2037
2%
2038
4%
2039
5%
2040
6%
2041
6%
2042
6%
2043

The mind-reading technology must have at least a 99.9% success rate against the average normal, non-augmented human trying to fool it. e.g. you could ask the person "did you do this thing 5 years ago", and the machine is able to tell what the correct answer is, even if the human doesn't want it to.

The human does not have access to any external tools to fool it, like pricking themselves with a pin to change their stress levels.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
sold Ṁ200 of 2024 NO

I bought a bunch of shares then sold them all when I realized none of the options will resolve NO until one of them resolves YES

@Tumbles Why does that matter?

@IsaacKing I predict it will happen in several years at the earliest, I didn't want to wait that long to get my profit out. Doesn't matter anymore now, someone else has chosen to bet the early options down

@Tumbles I meant why the other options not resolving NO until one of them resolves YES matters.

bought Ṁ200 of 2024 NO

probably worth changing the default sorting