When will mind-reading become reliable in an adversarial context?
Basic
20
Ṁ26322050
0.7%
2024
1.3%
2025
1.3%
2026
5%
2027
1.2%
2028
1.2%
2029
1.2%
2030
1.2%
2031
1.2%
2032
1.2%
2033
1.8%
2034
2%
2035
2%
2036
3%
2037
2%
2038
4%
2039
5%
2040
6%
2041
6%
2042
7%
2043
The mind-reading technology must have at least a 99.9% success rate against the average normal, non-augmented human trying to fool it. e.g. you could ask the person "did you do this thing 5 years ago", and the machine is able to tell what the correct answer is, even if the human doesn't want it to.
The human does not have access to any external tools to fool it, like pricking themselves with a pin to change their stress levels.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@IsaacKing I predict it will happen in several years at the earliest, I didn't want to wait that long to get my profit out. Doesn't matter anymore now, someone else has chosen to bet the early options down
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