When will mind-reading become reliable in an adversarial context?
20
134
Ṁ2.6kṀ1.2k
2050
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0.7%
2024
1.3%
2025
1.3%
2026
5%
2027
1.2%
2028
1.2%
2029
1.2%
2030
1.2%
2031
1.2%
2032
1.2%
2033
1.7%
2034
2%
2035
2%
2036
3%
2037
2%
2038
4%
2039
5%
2040
6%
2041
6%
2042
6%
2043
The mind-reading technology must have at least a 99.9% success rate against the average normal, non-augmented human trying to fool it. e.g. you could ask the person "did you do this thing 5 years ago", and the machine is able to tell what the correct answer is, even if the human doesn't want it to.
The human does not have access to any external tools to fool it, like pricking themselves with a pin to change their stress levels.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@IsaacKing I predict it will happen in several years at the earliest, I didn't want to wait that long to get my profit out. Doesn't matter anymore now, someone else has chosen to bet the early options down
More related questions
Related questions
Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2024?🧠🕵️
18% chance
Will anyone have their mind read without their prior consent before 2030?
38% chance
Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?
52% chance
Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️
37% chance
When will the first AI Mind Reading technology be used in a legal or policing context?
2033
Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️
23% chance
When will AI be better than humans at AI research? (Basically AGI)
Will a reliable useful neural device that transmits information about users thoughts be released before the end of 2028?
59% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
35% chance
Will AI be able to read minds by 2030?
61% chance