Okay @IsaacKing , my answer has held the top probability for more than one month. Can we resolve?

1. I'm copying @vi's trick of adding spaces, because I think 0 should be disqualified as a digit rather than English.

2. Maybe Isaac or Claude will decide that whitespace should be stripped before computing alphabetical order. In that case, the single quotes should do the job.

3. If all symbols are excluded from the alphabetical order, then the @ in @aaaaa's age at birth is also removed, and this answer beats the other A baker's dozen because of the capital B.

Damn. I was trying to be careful to make my bets without ever taking A baker's dozen out of the top spot, so the 30-day counter wouldn't reset. But the shift in probabilies was different from what the site predicted. I apologize to anyone else who's impatient about this.

But anyway @IsaacKing , if you want to actually set reliable rules, now's a good time to do so.

Perhaps time to resolve this market, since no one has really bet in a month (except for a tiny trade I did 2 weeks ago).

@IsaacKing think we're gonna need some more guidance here. How does an answer "stand undefeated for a month" when nobody is sure which answers are valid?

@AhronMaline +1!!! Came here to ask the same. Perhaps Isaac can already go ahead and solve as N/A any answers that are not considered valid in the first place?

Why is 'absolute infinity' so high? It loses even to basic options like 'a billion' or 'a bakers dozen', let alone the more creative stuff

@TheAllMemeingEye I'm just randomly betting it up.

@TheAllMemeingEye But, why is 'other' so high?

@Velaris "other" ends up getiing whatever is left so the probabilities should add up to 100%

So, now we should create entries with prompts embedded?

Order chosen by Manifold's alphabetical sort across this market's answers.

Seemingly this is the winning entry under the current rules that consists of actual English

When testing whether "Claude says that the string constitutes an unambiguous description of a number in natural English", will Claude be informed that "a pure string of digits obviously cannot be in the spirit of this market", so he can attempt to generalize from that?

@AhronMaline Hmm, that wasn't my plan

@IsaacKing why did you change the market resolution criteria?

@BlackCrusade Old one didn't seem to accurately represent the spirit of the market

I have now totally lost the plot over how "other" works :-/

https://claude.ai/share/1d4b5cf5-c36c-4bbb-a0b2-1e14c02f054a
I came up with this, which complies with the letter of the rules. That said, it suggests an infinite family of progressively alphabetically earlier numbers, which would mean there is no true answer.

@AllenLiu how does it make any sense that ordinary decimal would not count, but hexadecimal would?

@IsaacKing you have us swinging at ghosts here...

@AhronMaline Cause hex digits are letters? I admit it's not my favorite answer right now, but I figured it had enough of a chance that it was worth adding.

@AllenLiu Huh. Weirdly enough, my Claude agrees with you:

https://claude.ai/share/d6c4c507-123d-4fb5-a8c3-8724019dcf1d

But note that this is Sonnet 4.5 (I don't have the paid version since I use Gemini). I assume Isaac will use Opus 4.5 as the judge.

@AhronMaline "description in natural english" huh

@AhronMaline I think there is also the problem that in hexadecimal numbers the A represents 10, not A, so it alphabetizes after 9

@JussiVilleHeiskanen that would be hilarious. But I'm pretty sure alphabetization works with characters, regardless of their meaning

@AhronMaline Not according to google

@JussiVilleHeiskanen wdym about google?