@IsaacKing think we're gonna need some more guidance here. How does an answer "stand undefeated for a month" when nobody is sure which answers are valid?

Why is 'absolute infinity' so high? It loses even to basic options like 'a billion' or 'a bakers dozen', let alone the more creative stuff

@TheAllMemeingEye I'm just randomly betting it up.

@TheAllMemeingEye But, why is 'other' so high?

@Velaris "other" ends up getiing whatever is left so the probabilities should add up to 100%

So, now we should create entries with prompts embedded?

Order chosen by Manifold's alphabetical sort across this market's answers.

Seemingly this is the winning entry under the current rules that consists of actual English

When testing whether "Claude says that the string constitutes an unambiguous description of a number in natural English", will Claude be informed that "a pure string of digits obviously cannot be in the spirit of this market", so he can attempt to generalize from that?

@AhronMaline Hmm, that wasn't my plan

@IsaacKing why did you change the market resolution criteria?

@BlackCrusade Old one didn't seem to accurately represent the spirit of the market

I have now totally lost the plot over how "other" works :-/

https://claude.ai/share/1d4b5cf5-c36c-4bbb-a0b2-1e14c02f054a
I came up with this, which complies with the letter of the rules. That said, it suggests an infinite family of progressively alphabetically earlier numbers, which would mean there is no true answer.

@AllenLiu how does it make any sense that ordinary decimal would not count, but hexadecimal would?

@IsaacKing you have us swinging at ghosts here...

@AhronMaline Cause hex digits are letters? I admit it's not my favorite answer right now, but I figured it had enough of a chance that it was worth adding.

@AllenLiu Huh. Weirdly enough, my Claude agrees with you:

https://claude.ai/share/d6c4c507-123d-4fb5-a8c3-8724019dcf1d

But note that this is Sonnet 4.5 (I don't have the paid version since I use Gemini). I assume Isaac will use Opus 4.5 as the judge.

@AhronMaline "description in natural english" huh

@AhronMaline I think there is also the problem that in hexadecimal numbers the A represents 10, not A, so it alphabetizes after 9

@JussiVilleHeiskanen that would be hilarious. But I'm pretty sure alphabetization works with characters, regardless of their meaning

@AhronMaline Not according to google

@JussiVilleHeiskanen wdym about google?

Ok so like, a pure string of digits obviously cannot be in the spirit of this market

The reason I don't want to fully ignore all non-letter characters is because then there can't be spaces or hyphens as part of a normal English sentence

@IsaacKing this is a rather abrupt change, considering that "0" was at 45% just today, based on comments from 6 days ago (some of which you even liked!)

But okay, you did say you reserve the right to do that. What are the new rules?

@AhronMaline Ok how's this

@IsaacKing now the leader is

" 0"

(With more spaces). Did you mean to allow that?

@IsaacKing Also, we had a bit of fun with sniping answers by adding shorter descriptions of the same number. That rule was absurd but interesting, so I'm a little sad to see it gone

@IsaacKing The biggest issue is that you haven't clarifies what counts as "natural English". You commented that strings of digits don't count, but these do appear in normal English text. So what's the rule?

rip

@IsaacKing Some answers may be valid only some of the time; https://claude.ai/share/3fee865a-445b-46f7-9791-c64fa7a763f2 https://claude.ai/share/e17a5007-c895-4d1f-af25-fe2501046a4f

Just a moment...