
Each bet will be of amount 1/4 of the market liquidity at the time. Other than those 4 bets, I will not bet on this market.
Close date updated to 2023-02-13 11:59 pm
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3 | Ṁ51 | |
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@IsaacKing Ignoring capital limitations (which I think is reasonable given the relatively small available quantity of NO to bet against), it doesn't matter the order that you execute the trades, only the prices you execute them at. So betting NO at 99% and then later selling by betting YES at 90% is entirely equivalent to first betting YES at 90% and later selling by betting NO at 99%. Furthermore, when the market resolves YES eventually, that is essentially equivalent to letting everyone buy an unlimited quantity of NO for free. Given that, there is no benefit to buying NO earlier at a worse price (again, ignoring cost of capital). Rather the best way to optimize profit is to just buy YES at the best prices you can get and wait for resolution to redeem it.