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@IsaacKing when will you resolve this market?

Yudkowsky calls himself a grandpa and claims that his age should be considered higher based on his precocious youth and compound interest.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ax695frGJEzGxFBK4/biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-that-never-works

But I imagine that won't count.

@MartinRandall An interesting argument, but 53 < 70, so it's moot anyway.

Manifold's a platform so fine,
But if you're sixty-nine,
You'll be left out of the fold,
No Manifold for the old.

The criteria for "regular user" is going to make it almost impossible to be met. There aren't that many "regular users" at this standard already, the likelihood of one being 70+ is extremely low. I would be surprised if there were >10 accounts over a month old with owners aged 70+

@Gen I would've expected that the number's pretty high due to mechanisms such as streaks encouraging folks to bet daily.

The optimal strategy for someone who is over 70 looking at this market is to wait until near closing (so the most people have had the opportunity to bet no) and then bet everything on yes and then send you proof.

@Shelvacu No, because then other people will take most of the available YES shares in the mean time. The optimal strategy involves placing limit orders high enough to buy most of the shares against the NO bettors, but low enough to avoid arousing suspicion.