🏅 Top traders

Creator was given nine days to resolve the market, the market has an unambiguous resolution, resolving YES.

@IsaacKing Could you please resolve?

This can resolve YES: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023

I think this is resolved: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gS8Jmcfoa9FAh92YK/crosspost-acx-2022-prediction-contest-results

@Kaivu This is last year's. We won't know how good the 2023 predictions are until the end of the year.

@StanPinsent oh whoops

Is this counting only blind responses, or non-blind responses too?

@Yoav Includes the non-blind ones too.

Last year's would've scored at the 84th percentile, so not top 10%: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-predicted-2022

By "within the top 90%" do you mean:

1. At most 90% of other entries are better than this one

2. At least 90% of other entries are worse than this one

Normally I would interpret that as (1), so e.g. "within the top 10%" and "at the 90th percentile" both mean doing really well, whereas "within the top 90%" just means not doing really badly. But from context on this and the other market I think you might intend (2)?

@A Yeah that was a mistake on my part. I meant 2. I've edited the title.

Let me know if this affected anyone's betting.