See here for the context.
I'd be in favor of changing the loan system for future bets, but many of my past betting descisions on long term markets were predicated on the assumption that loans for those bets would pay out based on cost basis. If Manifold makes loans for those bets start paying out based on current value, I will be extremely annoyed at the loss of ~M$50,000.
1,000
3.00@IsaacKing Some of your loans have now paid out their daily payments (multiple times) based on current value instead of cost basis, and that applied retroactively to bets made before that change was made.
If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis,
Average cost basis, as used when this market was created, was removed from the loan calculation 3 days ago, with this change: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/commit/0c573786e37b141a8d651eeb631abcfe1653cace
The function getCpmmInvested previously was included and that is the function that calculates the average cost basis, it has been removed. The only factors remaining in the loan calculation are the sum of bet amounts and the current value. So the "If" part of the question title seems to be satisfied.
will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?
It does, all past bets are used with no adjustment for when the bet was made in the calculation.
If Manifold makes loans for those bets start paying out based on current value
From what I can see, at least some number of your loans have paid out at least one time based on current value. Not every loan, but some. The question does not specify that every loan needs to pay out based on current value, so even just one doing so is enough.
It seems like this can resolve Yes at this point.