Will Manifold change loans to pay out based on current share value by the end of 2023?
closes Jan 1

Right now loans are based on the mana you put into the market; your cost basis. Many people have suggested changing them to pay out based on the current share value instead.

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chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonsold Ṁ22 of NO

More discussion happening on discord:


Unfortunately the resolution criteria aren't super clear on a corner case like this, which was probably simply not anticipated. Yes loans are paid out "based on" (in a sense) the share value. The share value does enter into the equation. So the title sounds like YES, unless Isaac says that a partial change wasn't in the spirit, then 50% sounds reasonable.

In the description it says "Many people have suggested changing them to pay out based on the current share value instead". Is this background info, or clarifying the resolution criteria? Share value is used as well as bet amount/cost basis (?), not instead. So that would seem like a NO, except that it reads as background info rather than resolution criteria.

3 replies
Eliza avatar
Elizasold Ṁ67 of YES

@chrisjbillington Cost basis is no longer used. Only sum of bet amounts (minus sell/redemption) and market value.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billington

@Eliza Hm. Sum-of-bets and cost basis are distinct calculations, but are still based on what the shares cost....perhaps to someone more financial than me the difference is more than a minor tweak, I don't know. I'll read the discord thread to get a better feel for why that bit was changed.

Anyway, the only mention of cost basis in the description is saying how things were at time of writing, it's not clear what comprises part of the resolution criteria and what doesn't.

Eliza avatar
Elizapredicts YES

@chrisjbillington This has nothing in particular to do with the resolution rules of the market in question, but just a summary of the loan behavior so people can help understand it better:

Sum of bet amounts was introduced a few weeks ago (23 August) primarily as an anti wash trading device. There was an exploit related to wash trading to raise your cost basis.

Cost basis was removed completely with the current change.

Market value of shares replaced cost basis as the main determinant of loan basis with the most recent change.

Situations where each of these come up:

1. You bought in to a market and have not bought the other side or sold anything. Your loan amount is the lesser of what you spent to buy your position and what it is worth now.

2. You dominated a market and sold most of your shares for a huge profit. Due to sum of bet amounts your loan is ZERO.

3. You are losing big on a market and tried to save something by selling a lot of your shares at a loss. The market value is still bad. Your loan will end up being based on your current market value.

4. Later on, the market you sold shares at a loss for has recovered and you now have a winning position again. Your loan basis is capped by the sum of bet amounts. Even if your position improves so that your market value is a million mana, your sum of bet amounts limits the loan basis.

I hope that helps!

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ20 of NO
3 replies
chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicts NO

@chrisjbillington but he's incentivised to resolve 100% because he traded on it

EvanDaniel avatar
Evan Danielpredicts NO

@chrisjbillington Where is that discussion?

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicts NO

@EvanDaniel I messaged him on discord. I probably shouldn't have - he traded before answering me anyway. Thought he would immediately clarify here, but he hasn't so here's what I've got.

Lesson learned - trade before asking for clarification!

(There is no more to the conversation, that's all I've got)

Eliza avatar
Elizabought Ṁ100 of YES

The loans FAQ has been updated, your loan amount is now based on share value:

IF the share value is low, you get 4% of the share value. If your share value is high, you get 4% of your total bet amount. So the loan pays out depending on the share value.

4 replies
Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ50 of YES

Yeah I think this resolves yes

EvanDaniel avatar
Evan Daniel

@Eliza But if your bet has appreciated, it's based on the bet amount? Or what?

So it sounds like it pays out neither on the bet amount nor the value, but the lower of the two?

I don't think this resolves YES just yet.

Eliza avatar
Elizabought Ṁ100 of YES

@EvanDaniel How is it not a yes? It pays out one amount if your current share value is high, and another amount if your current share value is low. That's "based on current share value".

EvanDaniel avatar
Evan Danielbought Ṁ0 of YES

@Eliza It also pays out "based on the mana your put into the market" by that reading. So it's not "instead".

ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZbought Ṁ20 of NO

This is a BAD idea. People are gonna end up with negative mana.

5 replies
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallpredicts NO

@ZZZZZZ that already happens. I think it would happen a bit less with this approach.

Jason avatar

@MartinRandall Basing loans on the lesser of cost basis or current share value would be safer.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallpredicts NO

@Jason sure, but I can wash trade to set the cost basis equal to the current value, so that's only safer because bettors are lazy.

Jason avatar

@MartinRandall That could be regulated -- as the IRS does by disregarding wash trades under certain circumstances when someone is trying to generate losses for tax purposes. Also, requiring advanced users to jump through some hoops (even if via API) would make loans safer for less experienced users, who wouldn't be automatically handed loans that may not be justified on as free a basis.

Odoacre avatar

@MartinRandall that's still no worse that the current system

IsaacKing avatar

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