If I start identifying as a woman, will it bother me?
32
167
630
2025
9%
chance

In a discussion with a friend about whether everyone has a gender identity, I mentioned that it wouldn't bother me if people referred to me as a woman. They expressed some skepticism of this; their belief was that everyone has a gender identity, but for people whose identity matches their current body and social role, they don't notice any discomfort or feeling of "wrongness", so they don't end up having any subjective experience of having a gender identity.

The condition is met if I ask my aquaintances to refer to me with she/her pronouns, and then I'll resolve to YES or NO depending on whether I feel like those pronouns make me uncomfortable in some fundamental way. If I haven't done this by the end of 2024, I'll resolve this to N/A, unless I still feel like I might do it soon, in which case I'll extend the deadline a bit.

For reference:

  • I've identified and mostly been treated as a man for my whole life, which hasn't bothered me. I'm a typical male in most gender and sex related ways.

  • As a child I had long hair and would often be confused for a girl. I don't remember whether this bothered me at the time.

  • I have a vague memory of wearing some of my sister's dresses when I was young. I don't remember how often or why I did that.

  • When speaking to someone I don't know on the phone, they sometimes call me "ma'am". I certainly notice that, since it's strange and I don't think I have a particularly female-sounding voice. It's difficult to say whether any of the feelings around this happening are discomfort or just surprise.

In order to differente general discomfort with change from true gender disphoria, I'll wait several weeks or months into this experiement before resolving this market, to make sure I've had time to become acustomed to the new pronouns.

I will not trade in this market.

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predicts YES
  • Agender people exist; people who genuinely don't care one way or another. In queer subculture they'll often present nonbinary but outside of that they'll often conform to the minimum society expects of them.

  • Dissociation from your body and gender is a common response to gender dysphoria, which can appear to your internal self-narrative as not caring one way or the other. While it would cause your question to resolve NO by the letter of the description, I think there's a decent chance (12%-ish) it would give you gender euphoria - that is to say, a sense of "rightness" - if you experiment in a safe environment.

  • FWIW, pronouns tend to give a weaker signal than crossdressing, but eh.

Based, this has always been one of my biggest issues when understanding trans-people. It doesn't seem like it would be very uncomfortable having the body of the opposite sex, it just seems to have pros and cons. The people I can see caring are men who're very into being macho or women who're very into to being girly.

predicts YES

@levifinkelstein No offense, but that makes you abnormal. Think about how kids insult each other by misgendering them. Most people are very protective of their gender identity.

@ForrestTaylor Yeah and I would've had issues with that when I was a kid as well. But that's got nothing to do with a sense of gender identity and rather it being a sign disrespect and of being low status. If I had been girl and people said I looked like a girl I would most likely be happy about it. But if I was a boy and was told I looked manly I would also be happy about it.

@levifinkelstein To confirm, you're saying that you don't have a sense of identity that matches either gender, but after a gender has been "chosen" you do want people to recognize you as that gender?

@IsaacKing yeah, specifically since I already have male biology it would be a quite a bother to switch. Overall though I think I would prefer to be male since it seems to have more benefits I care about like not having periods, not having pregnancy, being physically stronger, sexual value detracts less by age, etc. The only exception would be if I could be a super attractive woman.

@levifinkelstein To be clear, if I had female biology I would consider it not worth it to swtich.

@levifinkelstein Do you think that maybe valuing those typically-male traits is your gender identity?

@IsaacKing I don't think so since most women would presumably not want to have to go through pregnancy or have periods if they could avoid it (all else equal). Same goes for physical strength and sexual value over time. Do you agree?

@levifinkelstein Not sure, I'd have to ask some women.

@IsaacKing Regardless, if I could be a hot woman that stays sexually valuable as I age comparable to men, without periods, and ways to have biochildren without pregnancy I would definitely go for it, and i don't think I would feel uncomfortable in my body at all. I feel like this strongly indicates those traits are not part of my gender identity.

predicts NO

@levifinkelstein I would like the additional years of life expectancy. Could still be relevant.

@MartinRandall Does that apply even if you're not the average man? Like the average might be lower for men since a lot of men do risky stuff. But if I don't do any of that stuff should I still expect to not live as long? I.e. is there a significant difference in life expectancy if we correct for everything not biological?

predicts NO

@levifinkelstein Short answer, yes. My guess is about 40% bio. The single X chromosome comes with a higher mutation risk. Probably other factors.

@levifinkelstein The reason men do risky stuff is mostly biological I think. Testosterone is one hell of a drug.

@JimAusman Whether or not it's biological to a large extent I can still choose to not do any of that risky stuff.

predicts NO

@levifinkelstein There is a mortality gap at age 0-1. There's also a gap at age 70, after controlling for smoking. Not the ages that come to mind as "risky stuff".

@MartinRandall You can do risky stuff your entire life that you have to pay for when you're old. For example eating unhealthy or getting into fights otherwise getting in injuries. For example concussion and so on. Not saying this is the explanation, but risky stuff doesn't mean just stuff you die of instantly.

@levifinkelstein Perhaps “you” can. I don’t intend to start a debate on free will but I think you might not have as much of it as you seem to think.

But men as a whole cannot. You have some say in how your biological programming plays out, but I don’t think it is true for the whole of mankind.

predicts NO

@JimAusman A free-will compatible take is that of course @levifinkelstein can choose to be less risky but they would do so better if they were developmentally female, all else equal.

We don't have definitive data on this stuff, others may come to other conclusions. It doesn't look to me like sex is screened off as a factor once we account for elective risky behavior.

@MartinRandall "but they would do so better if they were developmentally female, all else equal"

It's kind of difficult to imagine a world where I'm "developmentally female" all else equal, since that would change so much about me it's hard to know what would remain of me. Maybe if I was female I would be way less intense (as women often are) and so take abstract ideas like long-term utilitarian calculations less seriously.

bought Ṁ3 of YES

I don't think it's true that everyone has a gender identity and I think if you think you don't then that's evidence that you don't but 9% was just really low

predicts YES

@tcheasdfjkl way too low. I'd buy a lot more yes but honestly I just don't totally trust him

predicts NO

@tcheasdfjkl he's only committing to asking for different pronouns which I wouldn't expect to cause dysphoria just by itself.

@ForrestTaylor Why don't you trust me?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing

Your market manipulation caused me my single biggest loss in my history of this site and I was still salty when I wrote that comment

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