If I pay for a ChatGPT pro subscription, will it make me at least its cost back in value?
If I pay for a ChatGPT pro subscription, will it make me at least its cost back in value?
5
1kṀ9602026
66%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Market resolves based on the first month in which I use it. It currently costs $200, but that could change, and the market will resolve based on the new value. If new tiers are added/removed, this market is about whatever tier seems closest to what ChatGPT pro was at the time of market creation. If new versions or tools of ChatGPT come out, those are included too.
I'll value my time at $40 an hour for the purposes of this market, so if it saves me at least 5 hours past what I think the free version could do, that qualifies.
Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The time calculation will be based on net savings. The time expended using the pro subscription will be subtracted from the time saved by its output.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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