🏅 Top traders

Here's a twist:

Alright, looks like YES holders are acting against their own best manatary interests, so YES is solidly winning. I'll resolve this market to YES soon unless something changes.

@IsaacKing haha manatary. I like this term

There are 25 people who may cast a vote, so the winning team needs at least 13 in order to guarantee victory. (Though less may be sufficient if some people abstain from voting, which seems likely to occur.)

If the votes ends up NO, I will distribute M$300 among everyone who holds >0 but <30 YES shares and placed a vote on NO. (This means that if you have less than 30 YES shares, it's more profitable for you to vote NO than YES.)

@IsaacKing Sigh

@Jotto999 You really should know me by now.

@IsaacKing Oh I figured you would attempt something, since that you hadn't sold your NO shares.

@IsaacKing What is the method of distribution? Equal division?

@XComhghall Yeah

Rougee will make 169 in profit if resolves to YES. We could offer 25-30 to 5-7.

@AllanLacy @jonsimon @muffins @firstuserhere why are you all voting for YES? You make more by voting on NO, guaranteed.

@IsaacKing total 10 people hold <30 YES shares. If all of us voted NO, to distribute the 300 mana, then the market resolves no, we all lose equivalent Mana but gain 30Mana each. So it's (30-costbasis) mana gained per person.

@firstuserhere Right, so it's more profitable for you to bet on NO.

@IsaacKing if I'm voting in isolation, then sure. But the reverse proposition might still happen.

If @RogerYang announces to distribute their profits to all the >0,<30 NO holders, then the NO share holders will earn more as well.

Now all that's left to see is if any >30 YES holders will attempt to keep <30 YES holders on their side by offering some reward.

So for now, it's better to sit and wait and hold the YES vote, as a leverage, until i receive offers from both >30 YES and NO holders

@firstuserhere Huh? One of us is confused about something. There's literally no benefit to voting YES for you right now, no matter what other participants do.

@IsaacKing if the top YES holder earns 100 Mana if market resolves YES, and I earn 1 Mana if it resolves YES and 29 if it resolves No.

Since I'm flaky now and likely to switch, and the top YES holder offers to split their profits with me, it's better for me to stay and earn 50Mana than the 30 by switching

@firstuserhere That doesn't make sense. Nobody has offered you any mana to vote YES. If they do you can switch your vote at that point.

@IsaacKing Ah i see we're both making the same point. But i should be signalling my vote's flaky position by holding a NO.

@firstuserhere @RogerYang @XComhghall your turn

Apologies for the delay. This is the official voting thread. Vote by liking one of my two comments in reply to this message. Any votes by people who don't hold shares will be ignored.

Resolve to YES

Resolve to NO

Oh, and as usual, I get a vote too, even though I can't like my own comments.

@IsaacKing Which obviously is YES?

@XComhghall Currently my vote is for NO, but it may change in the future.

@IsaacKing when does voting finish?

@RogerYang Once it seems no one else wants to vote or change their existing vote.

@IsaacKing since the "bribe" is just 5M, I'll stick to my original bet. Here for the fun, not the fake money :D

@AllanLacy Seems like you underestimated people's commitment to their "team". This could be a good setup for social scientists to emulate for quantifying strength of tribal affiliations.

Hmm, 9 to 5 currently. We may need a little more. @A, you want to join in on the bribe, to avoid your losses?

@IsaacKing Sure I'll throw in an extra M$100 to your existing M$300 pot (conditional on NO winning). To simplify things, if NO wins I'll just send the M$100 to you @IsaacKing and let you distribute it with what you're sending out already.