IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
resolved Jan 31
How will shareholders in this market vote for it to resolve?
Resolved
YES

At market close, everyone who holds at least one share (in either direction) gets to vote for YES or NO. This market resolves based on the outcome of that vote. (One vote per person.)

If the vote is tied or close to tied, I'll wait a while to see if anyone wants to change their vote. (If necessary instituting a time limit before the vote becomes final.) If it ends up being exactly even and no one wants to change their vote, I'll resolve to 50%.

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
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4Ṁ46
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IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO

Here's a twist:

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

Alright, looks like YES holders are acting against their own best manatary interests, so YES is solidly winning. I'll resolve this market to YES soon unless something changes.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing haha manatary. I like this term

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

There are 25 people who may cast a vote, so the winning team needs at least 13 in order to guarantee victory. (Though less may be sufficient if some people abstain from voting, which seems likely to occur.)

If the votes ends up NO, I will distribute M$300 among everyone who holds >0 but <30 YES shares and placed a vote on NO. (This means that if you have less than 30 YES shares, it's more profitable for you to vote NO than YES.)

Jotto999 avatar
Jotto 999predicted YES at 96%
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

@Jotto999 You really should know me by now.

Jotto999 avatar
Jotto 999predicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing Oh I figured you would attempt something, since that you hadn't sold your NO shares.

XComhghall avatar
XComhghallpredicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing What is the method of distribution? Equal division?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%
XComhghall avatar
XComhghallpredicted YES at 96%

Rougee will make 169 in profit if resolves to YES. We could offer 25-30 to 5-7.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

@AllanLacy @jonsimon @muffins @firstuserhere why are you all voting for YES? You make more by voting on NO, guaranteed.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing total 10 people hold <30 YES shares. If all of us voted NO, to distribute the 300 mana, then the market resolves no, we all lose equivalent Mana but gain 30Mana each. So it's (30-costbasis) mana gained per person.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

@firstuserhere Right, so it's more profitable for you to bet on NO.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing if I'm voting in isolation, then sure. But the reverse proposition might still happen.

If @RogerYang announces to distribute their profits to all the >0,<30 NO holders, then the NO share holders will earn more as well.

Now all that's left to see is if any >30 YES holders will attempt to keep <30 YES holders on their side by offering some reward.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

So for now, it's better to sit and wait and hold the YES vote, as a leverage, until i receive offers from both >30 YES and NO holders

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

@firstuserhere Huh? One of us is confused about something. There's literally no benefit to voting YES for you right now, no matter what other participants do.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing if the top YES holder earns 100 Mana if market resolves YES, and I earn 1 Mana if it resolves YES and 29 if it resolves No.

Since I'm flaky now and likely to switch, and the top YES holder offers to split their profits with me, it's better for me to stay and earn 50Mana than the 30 by switching

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

@firstuserhere That doesn't make sense. Nobody has offered you any mana to vote YES. If they do you can switch your vote at that point.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing Ah i see we're both making the same point. But i should be signalling my vote's flaky position by holding a NO.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

Apologies for the delay. This is the official voting thread. Vote by liking one of my two comments in reply to this message. Any votes by people who don't hold shares will be ignored.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

Resolve to YES

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

Resolve to NO

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

Oh, and as usual, I get a vote too, even though I can't like my own comments.

XComhghall avatar
XComhghallpredicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing Which obviously is YES?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

@XComhghall Currently my vote is for NO, but it may change in the future.

RogerYang avatar
Rougeepredicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing when does voting finish?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

@RogerYang Once it seems no one else wants to vote or change their existing vote.

AllanLacy avatar
Allan Lacypredicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing since the "bribe" is just 5M, I'll stick to my original bet. Here for the fun, not the fake money :D

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonpredicted YES at 96%

@AllanLacy Seems like you underestimated people's commitment to their "team". This could be a good setup for social scientists to emulate for quantifying strength of tribal affiliations.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

Hmm, 9 to 5 currently. We may need a little more. @A, you want to join in on the bribe, to avoid your losses?

A avatar
Apredicted NO at 96%

@IsaacKing Sure I'll throw in an extra M$100 to your existing M$300 pot (conditional on NO winning). To simplify things, if NO wins I'll just send the M$100 to you @IsaacKing and let you distribute it with what you're sending out already.

Jotto999 avatar
Jotto 999predicted YES at 96%

Doesn't look anywhere near close, almost nobody is voting NO. This should resolve YES now.

RogerYang avatar
Rougeepredicted YES at 96%

😭

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

Please like one of the comments following this comment to cast your vote.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

@firstuserhere the number of likes on either determine the votes. Since i cannot like my own comment, YES+1 will be the vote count cuz i vote YES

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

@firstuserhere @IsaacKing @everyone, this thread is not being counted for some reason. Please cast your vote in the official thread by @IsaacKing

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonpredicted YES at 96%

👋 👋

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonpredicted YES at 96%

@jonsimon 👋👋👋👋

RogerYang avatar
Rougeepredicted YES at 96%

Isaac be dead 😭

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 96%

@RogerYang The market disagrees.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

@IsaacKing lol this is the perfect response. A market hahaha

Jotto999 avatar
Jotto 999predicted YES at 96%
daniel avatar
Danielpredicted YES at 96%

So when/how do we vote?

Jotto999 avatar
Jotto 999bought Ṁ10 of YES

Guys if we all go with YES, we get a bit of Isaac's mana. ;)

Jotto999 avatar
Jotto 999predicted YES at 96%

@Jotto999 I vote YES.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

@Jotto999 i vote YES

muffins avatar
muffinspredicted YES at 96%

Also voting yes!

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted YES at 96%

@muffins aight let's do this Isaac style

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonbought Ṁ10 of YES

Is it exactly 1 vote per person, regardless f how many shares they have?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@jonsimon Correct

DesTiny avatar
DesTiny

Do you have a separate means of voting, or it just the direction of your shares?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@DesTiny The vote is unrelated to which shares they hold. Someone with YES shares can vote for NO if they want to.