What fraction of Manifold users who vote for one of the majority parties in the 2024 election will vote Republican?
Basic
12
Ṁ393Jan 1
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
After the election, I will poll Manifold users to ask how they voted (the same poll as used for this market). I will resolve PROB to the fraction who voted Republican vs. the fraction who voted Democrat. (Other parties and people who didn't vote are ignored.)
The poll will not be anonymous, and if I find out that anyone answered the poll differently from how they actually voted, I will consider that dishonorable. Realistically though, I have no way to enforce accurate voting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
33% chance
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Donald Trump before the end of 2024?
42% chance
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? #2
If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
38% chance
Will the number of monthly active users on Manifold drop between November 30th, 2024 and December 31st, 2024?
92% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
55% chance
How will a plurality of Manifold vote in the 2024 US presidential election?