I think we're likely to get a computational answer to this question in the next 15 years

https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-an-isotope-of-an-element-with-382ef70432fb

58% chance. (Longer-term duplicate of https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-an-isotope-of-an-element-with)

I sometimes hear speculation about an island of stability, but don't have a good sense of how likely the experts actually consider it to be.

Resolves YES if an observation of such an isotope is published by market close, otherwise NO.

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Maybe you want a question like: "Is the decay rate of element XXX within X% of predicted?"

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