Please vote such that:

• "0" is the legal regime as of May 2022.

• "10" is the legal regime described below:

  • Must be legal in at least 48 states. (This is to allow for some holdouts, but not a patchwork of different regulations; they should be broadly legal in general.)

  • It's ok if they require some approval process, but it needs to be general and reasonable. Asking the CFTC for a special exception like PredictIt had to do is no good. Nor will it count if the process technically exists but is made so difficult or expensive as to be impossible in practice. But if it's similar to the bureaucracy airlines have to go through, that still counts as YES; flying commercial flights is obviously legal in the US in the common-sense meaning of the term.

  • In general, if the vibe is "not much has changed" that's more like a 0, and if the vibe is "wow this is so much better", and prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Manifold are moving into the legal real-money space, that's more like a 10.

Pick whatever numerical value you feel best describes the state of the US at the end of 2025. (Not at present! End of 2025.)