Conditional on Manifold *not* integrating with crypto in any way, will it have at least 10,000 DAUs at the end of 2023?
23
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resolved Jan 27
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NO
Many people seem to be talking about adding some sort of cryptocurrency integration to Manifold. I have concerns about this idea. When I asked the developers about what the benefits of crypto would be in a recent AMA, the only answers were "it lets us appeal more to people in the crypto space" and "something something decentralization, we haven't really figured out how that would work or why it'd be good". No one mentioned a significant benefit that crypto would provide to the platform's functionality. While appealing to more users is a good thing in and of itself, cryptocurrency is a hot culture war topic at the moment. Manifold aligning itself with crypto may well result in losing access to millions of potential users who are vehemently opposed to crypto. I'm not convinced this tradeoff would be a net positive for the site. In the bigger picture, many other prediction markets are run with crypto in order to get around gambling regulations, and many of the same people who are into crypto are also into prediction markets, so there's already an association between the two in public discourse. Given the potential benefits of widespread adoption of prediction markets, it seems important that the community push back against this association and try to keep general discourse about prediction markets from becoming politically polarized. Accordingly, there may be value in having some prediction markets that intentionally distance themselves from the cryptosphere. Apr 5, 4:41pm: Other half here: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/conditional-on-manifold-integrating
Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO
10k dau? Its not even at 200 dau right now!
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Outside view says this is way too high.

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